Yesterday saw the historic triumph of Creigh Deeds, the barefoot lawyer from Bath County, who surged from "worst to first" to win the Democratic primary in an unexpected and unprecedented landslide.

I'm in my law office this morning reviewing the State Board results.  I've been campaigning  for Senator Deeds since 2008.  In the last few weeks, I was hitting doors, making phone calls and working the METRO.  But even I didn't see this landslide coming.

Late last week I told Joe Abbey that Creigh would get "a solid third" of the vote in the 34th Senate District.  I based that on the Post endorsement (huge) and my own endorsement (not-as-huge -- but, hey, it's my website). 

When the total numbers are added, Deeds will clear 56% of the vote in the 34th Senate District, well above his statewide average of 50% and more than twenty points higher than my prediction.

Was I totally wrong in my guess of "a third"?  No, actually that was on the mark.  For last week. 

If you look at absentee voting totals reflecting votes cast over the last 30 days, the candidates were evenly matched in the 11th Cong. District in the last few weeks of the race.  The absentee totals revealed today show a slight win for Brian Moran (42%) with Deeds (35%) and McAuliffe (22%).  And that's where I thought it would end up.  Frankly, that still would have been a great showing for a non-Northern Virginian.  But no blow-out. 

What happened?

Over the last few days, there was a massive shift of voters of voters to Deeds.  Many had been undecided.  Others had lightly committed to Moran or McAuliffe.  These late breakers were "high information" voters following the race closely and watching the momentum swings.  Most are long-time homeowners who read the newspaper daily. 

These veteran voters were not impressed by last-second mailers or radio ads that attacked Creigh.  They've voted in many elections and heard it all before.  They saw Deeds as an authentic Democrat with a positive message for all Virginians. 

Here are the Deeds percentages from a sample of the older, established communities in my area:  Olde Creek (62), Oak Hill (60), Robinson (61), Flint Hill (56), Wolf Trap (57), Camelot (60), Mantua (60), Vale (62), Oakton (58), Colvin (61), and Oak Marr (58).

Note that these communities are traditionally the "swing" precincts in Fairfax.  Several went for McCain in '08 or for Herrity in the Supervisor special.  They are not Alexandria or Arlington.

In contrast are the newer, younger neighborhoods clustered around the Vienna Metro or Tysons:  Penderbrook (47), Kilmer (46), Blake (49), Mosby (50) and Freedom Hill (39).  These totals are mirrored by the condo or townhome communities in Centreville and Lorton where Deeds was under 40% of the vote

(note the outlier is Nottoway by Vienna METRO where Deeds got 58% -- I door-knocked that myself).

These newer voters were marginally more attracted to either McAuliffe or Moran, although they also swung late to Deeds.  They tend to rely more upon the Internet or Facebook to get information, both of which Brian and Terry used aggressively.  Again, the difference here is incremental -- maybe 10-15% per precinct -- but significant enough to notice. 

Downstate this trend is even more obvious.  Deeds ran away with huge margins in the 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th districts, which are predominantly rural or outer suburbs.   McAuliffe won the 3rd and Brian and Terry competed well in the 1st, 2nd and 4th, all of which are more urban.  By virtue of winning Fairfax County and Arlington (?!), Deeds was able to nip Moran in the 8th. 

What's the point?

Unlike the Webb vs. Miller tilt of 2006, this primary was determined by older and established voters relying upon mainstream media like the Post.  God bless the Netroots but they can't claim this one.

Also the turn-out of over 300,000 statewide was double the 2006 turnout and triple our 2005 turnout (which was LG only).  The net effect was to push the Democratic voting population towards the middle in its choice of candidate.  That benefitted Deeds over Moran, who ran to the left on most issues, and McAuliffe, who was relying on the youth vote. 

In retrospect, I feel a tremendous amount of pride in the Deeds campaign.  As you may know, his campaign manager Joe Abbey was my manager in 2007.  I recommended him to Creigh and that hire was the best move he made.

This battle is just beginning.  Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran fought the good fight and both conceded with a classy speech.  Their supporters represent some of the best volunteers and canvassers in Virginia.  We will need their talents to go the last mile.