The (Pre-Election) Post-Election Analysis
Posted by Chap at 11/2/2006 11:59 AM and is filed under uncategorized 
This post is written in the expectation that Jim Webb will win on Tuesday. If he doesn't, I will look like an idiot -- which is not unheard of in the Petersen household.
Years from now, historians will cite three key figures in Mr. Webb's march into the U.S. Senate -- the first Democrat not named "Chuck Robb" to be elected in 40 years.
First is Lowell Feld, the Blogger-in-Chief of "Raising Kaine." Last November (yes, one year ago), Lowell emailed me about a writer named "James H. Webb" who had mentioned in an interview that he might run for U.S. Senate. At Lowell's encouragement, I met with Mr. Webb on December 12th and decided to help him. It was another two months -- the President's Day parade in Alexandria -- that Webb actually made an appearance as a candidate. During those two months, Lowell was working the Internet hard, building support for Webb. When the reluctant candidate showed up on that cold morning in February, there were 50 Democratic activists there to march for him. The rest, as they say, is history.
Second is the enfant terrible of Virginia politics, Ben Tribbett a.k.a. "Not Larry Sabato." Once Webb officially announced for Senate, Ben decided to weigh in. As usual, he showed all the subtlety of a Sherman tank. With Ben and Lowell leading the charge, Webb dominated the Net-waves, which directly correlated to his strong volunteer support in Northern VA and blow-out win in NoVA in the primary. Then, on a slow Monday in mid-August, Ben tipped the mainstream media to a YouTube clip recorded in the distant hollows of southwest Virginia by a young Webb volunteer tracking Senator Allen. A sixteen point lead was gone in a week. And the word "macaca" passed into the lexicon of the nation.
Third is Leslie Byrne. Jim Webb brought a lot of strengths to the table as a candidate. Popularity with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party was not one of them. Leslie's endorsement gave him instant credibility with rank-and-file activists around the state. More importantly, it gave him cover against statements and articles written years ago on gender relations in the military. Without that endorsement, he could not have made it. With it, he was perfectly placed to run his race.
Once he got to the general, Jim Webb had the smarts, the skills and a profile that most Virginia candidates can only dream about. And he was running against a cheerleader for the least successful Presidential administration since Herbert Hoover. He was the right man at the right time in the right state.
And that's why he'll win Tuesday. (If I'm wrong, then I'm an idiot.)
Chap
Years from now, historians will cite three key figures in Mr. Webb's march into the U.S. Senate -- the first Democrat not named "Chuck Robb" to be elected in 40 years.
First is Lowell Feld, the Blogger-in-Chief of "Raising Kaine." Last November (yes, one year ago), Lowell emailed me about a writer named "James H. Webb" who had mentioned in an interview that he might run for U.S. Senate. At Lowell's encouragement, I met with Mr. Webb on December 12th and decided to help him. It was another two months -- the President's Day parade in Alexandria -- that Webb actually made an appearance as a candidate. During those two months, Lowell was working the Internet hard, building support for Webb. When the reluctant candidate showed up on that cold morning in February, there were 50 Democratic activists there to march for him. The rest, as they say, is history.
Second is the enfant terrible of Virginia politics, Ben Tribbett a.k.a. "Not Larry Sabato." Once Webb officially announced for Senate, Ben decided to weigh in. As usual, he showed all the subtlety of a Sherman tank. With Ben and Lowell leading the charge, Webb dominated the Net-waves, which directly correlated to his strong volunteer support in Northern VA and blow-out win in NoVA in the primary. Then, on a slow Monday in mid-August, Ben tipped the mainstream media to a YouTube clip recorded in the distant hollows of southwest Virginia by a young Webb volunteer tracking Senator Allen. A sixteen point lead was gone in a week. And the word "macaca" passed into the lexicon of the nation.
Third is Leslie Byrne. Jim Webb brought a lot of strengths to the table as a candidate. Popularity with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party was not one of them. Leslie's endorsement gave him instant credibility with rank-and-file activists around the state. More importantly, it gave him cover against statements and articles written years ago on gender relations in the military. Without that endorsement, he could not have made it. With it, he was perfectly placed to run his race.
Once he got to the general, Jim Webb had the smarts, the skills and a profile that most Virginia candidates can only dream about. And he was running against a cheerleader for the least successful Presidential administration since Herbert Hoover. He was the right man at the right time in the right state.
And that's why he'll win Tuesday. (If I'm wrong, then I'm an idiot.)
Chap
Chap, I think you are being unduly modest about your own role in helping Jim Webb.
Chap, so African Americans have nothing to do with this. Chap if you ever want to do anything in successfully in Virginia politics you need to think more broadly. The three folks you mentioned are important. Incredibly so. But your narrow focus shows that you are just pandering to the bloggers and the Norhtern Virginia crowd. Thats great if all you wnat to be is a GA member from NOVA.
Thanks for writing this. I didn't know all of this history, especially about Byrne. That's fascinating.
I remember reading an article late last year about the possibility of a Webb run and I was stunned and delighted. I had known who Webb was when I was in Naval ROTC in the 80s and my brother was in the Naval Academy. I knew, from that moment that he would be the sort of candidate he has turned into.
I asked my wife to get me Born Fighting for my Birthday last year and had read it by the time February rolled around. I was sold completely. I'm proud of my own Scots-Irish heritage and it was great to read his book.
Bye Bye George:
Note the date and time that I was "pandering" to the liberal blogosphere! Seriously, if you go back to the Senate primary this spring, the fact is that Webb got worked over pretty hard in the Afr-Am precincts in Portsmouth, Danville, Chesapeake, etc. That's not my opinion - that's a fact. (ironically, my LG campaign carried each of those jurisdictions in the '05 primary -- thanks to some great friends and my own focus on that area). The bottom line is that he had to make it up somewhere and he was able to do it in NoVA. If you don't credit the blogosphere, then who do you credit? The Washington Post? The local Democratic Committees? Sorry. Just not the case.
Chap - Webb never made it to Danville during the primary. In fact, he lost Danville to Miller by a margin of about 50%. Webb has never had a strong showing in African-American communities and his campaign has only made an effort to fix that recently. If Webb wins, it will be due in part to black voters coming home to Webb on Election Day - right now the numbers still seem to show them with a large percentage undecided.
No doubt about it, Soutside Dem. In fact, look at key precincts in Petersburg, Portsmouth, Richmond for Election Day turnout. They need to be well above 2002 levels and hopefully approaching 2005 levels. For no other reason that the Lord made me an optimist, I feel that will happen. (if not, well that's another post ...)
Chap your rendition of history is interesting to say the least. Putting that aside, a primary win does not an election make. And win we win this election, it will be in large part to that community that you declinie to give credit too.
Bye Bye George, I think Chap is talking about what got Jim into the general election, not what has happened since. It goes without saying that African Americans are the single most important general election voting block in the state for the Democratic Party, and everyone appreciates all the support Jim Webb has recieved from that community after getting off to a slow start.
I'm happy to hear from your critics, but your point is contrived at best. I'm simply noting the strange/unique way how the Webb movement got started. How it finishes -- well that's a different story.
Chap - How soon we forget about the endorsements of Kerry, Kennedy, Durbin and other U.S. Senators. NOVA is much more in tune with national politics and these and other national Dems let the NOVA democrats know it was ok to vote for Webb.
We seem to have forgotten that there were hundreds of people very early on that made this campaign happen. Anonymous people who spoke to friends and family, put up signs, emailed friends. They even convinced Webb himself to run for Senate. Just days before he joined the race, Webb told some people he might not run. In the end it was the anonymous crowd who kept peppering Webb back in January who convinced Webb to run. Fortunately for us all, Webb was good enough to ablige.
No one can belittle the effect of Lowell, Lee Diamond, and Josh C. in getting Webb's name in the mix, but it the anonymous crowd that took the spark and started the fire.
Let's keep working and make sure Webb actually wins. Election day is not yet here.
Amen to all that. Now let's get out there this weekend and make it happen.
Oh Chap ... you are certainly not an idiot. Even if your prediction is proven wrong on Tuesday, which I certainly hope it is.